San Francisco and California Ballot Backstory · Why is this on my ballot?
Measure RTM: summary
Regional Transit Measure
Mark your own choices here. You may bring this sheet into the voting booth.
A YES vote means
YES means a 14-year transit sales tax: 1% in San Francisco, 0.5% in four other counties. Estimated to raise about $980 million a year.
A NO vote means
NO means no new transit sales tax. Rates stay the same, and BART, Muni, Caltrain and other transit agencies do not get this money.
Both ovals are empty on purpose. The choice is yours.
If it fails
Timing: from January 2027
If Measure RTM fails, BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit have published plans or options to cut service, mostly from 2027. BART's backup plan, if no new money comes, would cut train hours by about 63% from January 2027. Opponents say the deficit "stems from a manufactured crisis."
Why it’s on the ballot now
Federal and state relief money gave Muni's agency, the SFMTA, over $200 million a year since FY24. A city report says this money is not in the FY27 budget.
MTC cites an independent analysis. It found BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit face deficits of more than $800 million a year. These start in fiscal year 2027-28.
For fiscal year 2026-2027, the SFMTA says a $200 million state loan in its budget closes a $307 million gap. The loan comes from up to $590 million that a 2026 state law (AB 117) authorized for Bay Area transit agencies. SFMTA staff also listed other one-time options, such as savings from past cost controls. The SFMTA projects its deficit will grow to $434 million by 2030.
In 2025, the Legislature passed SB 63. It created a five-county transit tax district and let its voters approve this sales tax.
The money
The impartial analysis estimates the tax would raise about $980 million a year in the five counties. A December 2024 estimate made for MTC puts San Francisco's part at about $208 million a year at FY27 levels. The tax would collect for only part of FY27, because it starts April 1, 2027 by this guide's count. Of money raised in San Francisco, 62.87% goes to Muni and 29.14% to BART for operations. Road repaving is not allowed in San Francisco.
Needs a simple majority (50% + 1) to pass Some measures need 55% or two-thirds of votes to pass. This one needs only a simple majority.Who bears the cost
People who buy taxable goods in the five counties
| Example | Pays now | Added | % of current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two-person household earning $64,850 (50% of San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. | $1,096 a year | +$127 a year | +11.6% |
| Two-person household earning $129,700 (San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. | $1,404 a year | +$163 a year | +11.6% |
| Two-person household earning $259,400 (twice San Francisco area median income). Spending is from statewide IRS tables. | $1,811 a year | +$210 a year | +11.6% |
Example figures are calculated by code from the cited rates, not written by AI. How we calculate
The strongest case for and against
Strongest case for
Supporters include Mayor Daniel Lurie, Senator Scott Wiener and the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. They say transit faces deep cuts without this money. Muni could cut service by at least 30% and cancel at least 20 bus routes. It could end regular evening service and end cable car service. BART could close 15 stations, including Colma, San Bruno and South San Francisco. It could cut service by 70%. Caltrain could run one train per hour and stop on weekends. Supporters say more people would drive, making traffic and air pollution worse. They note large agencies must show cost savings to keep getting this money. The tax does not apply to rent, utilities, prescription medicines or most groceries.
Strongest case against
Opponents include Quentin L. Kopp of the San Francisco Taxpayers Association and Griffin Lee of ConnectedSF. They say the tax makes San Francisco less affordable. People would pay it on most things they buy, including prepared food, clothing and over-the-counter medicines. They say seniors, students, disabled and low-income residents are hurt most. They call it the largest sales tax increase in San Francisco history. The city's total rate would reach 9.625%. Its new rate is double the other counties' new rate. They say it would collect about $14 billion across five counties over 14 years. They argue BART and Muni are mismanaged, saying 539 BART and 338 Muni employees got pay and benefits above $250,000 in 2024. Lee says guaranteed money removes pressure for reform and wants fixes before funding.